The Memo: Stakes are huge for tense US-Iran talks in Islamabad

The stakes are sky-high and the potential prize is massive in Saturday’s talks between the United States and Iran. But acrobatic leaps of faith will be needed from both sides if they are to even come close to a definitive agreement.

Experts suggest that a more realistic hope is some kind of stabilization that would enable a continuing de-escalation of hostilities. 

Many people in both nations — and around the world — would settle for such an outcome in the wake of the war begun by a joint U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran on Feb. 28. 

Even a moderately successful result in the talks, which will take place in the Pakistani city of Islamabad, would represent a welcome injection of calm after a rollercoaster period.

It’s less than a week since President Trump used an obscenity to demand Iran reopen the vital Strait of Hormuz. On Tuesday morning, he threatened that “a whole civilization will die tonight” only to back off that threat and instead accept a ceasefire the same evening. The precise terms of the deal have been bickered over ever since.

Adding another layer of tension and confusion, scrutiny has shifted to Lebanon in recent days.

Israel has invaded its northern neighbor, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu massively intensified airstrikes right after Trump appeared to be poised for peace with Iran. 

More than 200 people were killed in Lebanon on Wednesday alone, with the Israelis claiming to have hit more than 100 targets in a 10-minute period.

Israel says it is trying to counter Hezbollah, the militant group widely seen as an Iranian proxy that frequently fires rockets toward Israel’s northern cities. But Israel’s critics, in Lebanon and beyond, believe Netanyahu is trying to reignite a full-blown war rather than let Trump back off.

Meanwhile, Iran insists that the initial ceasefire deal covers Lebanon — a claim supported by the social media post from Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif that announced the contours of the agreement. The U.S. says the deal does not encompass Lebanon.

The picture is highly confused, with Trump saying at one point he had spoken to Netanyahu, who Trump implied had pledged to take a more “low key” approach. Netanyahu says plainly in public that there is no ceasefire.

Adding to fears that the Lebanon issue could capsize the talks, the leader of the Iranian delegation, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, wrote on social media Friday that a ceasefire in Lebanon and “the release of Iran’s blocked assets” would need to be resolved “before negotiations begin.”

Qalibaf, the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament, will lead his nation’s delegation. Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi is among several other major figures there.

Vice President Vance will spearhead the American team, along with Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner and special envoy Steve Witkoff. 

Vance has been publicly supportive of Trump’s war on Iran but he is also recognized as the biggest skeptic of foreign intervention in the upper reaches of the administration.

Trita Parsi, the Iranian-born vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, said that the size and seniority of the Islamic Republic’s delegation meant that the prospect of progress might be “more serious than I first thought.”

Parsi, who favors less adversarial relations between the U.S and Iran, said that he remained skeptical that a full resolution could be found but “that does not necessarily mean it will be a return to war.”

Instead, Parsi is among many who believe there could be an outcome that begins to address the major issues: a possible nonaggression pact, control of the Strait of Hormuz, progress on Iran’s enrichment program and, crucially, some agreement on Lebanon.

The matter of sanctions on Iran also remains outstanding.

Every one of those issues is vexingly complicated, however. The mutual suspicion on both sides is also extremely high.

Trump, leaving the White House on Friday evening, did not stop to speak with reporters, as he often does. 

Earlier in the day, on social media, he had contended, “The Iranians don’t seem to realize they have no cards, other than a short term extortion of the World by using International Waterways.”

“The only reason they are alive today is to negotiate!,” Trump added.

The rhetoric is in keeping with Trump’s ever-present desire to claim spectacular victories. But the reality is far more complicated.

Iran has, certainly, been battered by the combined American and Israeli assault, which has been particularly devastating for its navy and air force. 

On the other hand, the Islamic Republic is still standing — the goal that mattered above all to its leaders. Tehran maintains effective control of the vital Strait of Hormuz, and with it the capacity to impact the global economy. It has also held on to its cache of highly unenriched uranium — so far.

Meanwhile, the reverberations of the conflict have been global, as Iran hit out at energy-rich Persian Gulf nations, the price of oil soared and stock markets juddered.

The war has never been popular with the American people, and Trump’s approval ratings have edged down as the price of gas at the pump has moved up. 

Not many Republicans will publicly criticize the president. But even fewer are eager to fight November’s midterm elections on the issue of a war on Iran.

The eyes of the world will be on Islamabad on Saturday.

For both sides, there are huge reasons to want peace — and equally large reasons to fear the kind of concessions it might entail.

The Memo is a reported column by Niall Stanage.

Copyright 2026 Nexstar Media Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

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