Trump picked a trade fight with Canada. US defense firms may pay the price.

Washington went into last week’s trade talks with Canada looking for more than relief on dairy and alcohol. The administration wanted Ottawa to complete its F-35 purchase, buy American radar planes as part of joining President Trump’s Golden Dome missile defense project and grant the U.S. a right of first refusal on Canadian critical minerals. 

By Saturday morning, the talks had collapsed. Fifty percent tariffs hit roughly $20 billion in Canadian goods, and Prime Minister Mark Carney says Canada will retaliate “dollar for dollar” starting Sept. 8. The bigger loss for Washington, though, may show up well after those tariffs stop making headlines. 

None of what Washington wanted on defense was ever going to be delivered by threat. A tariff can be imposed and enforced at the border. Completing the F-35 order, joining Golden Dome, opening Canadian mineral reserves to American companies are different. No Canadian government can be forced into them, because each one requires Ottawa to keep saying yes, year after year, as contracts get signed and budgets get voted. Squeezing Canada on trade doesn’t make that yes more likely. It makes those choices harder to defend in Ottawa. 

The administration has spent years telling allies to spend more on defense. Canada is finally doing it: Carney says his government will put half a trillion dollars into defense investment over the next decade. Until........

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