The results of the election for a new mayor to succeed Andy Burnham in Greater Manchester show progressives standing at the threshold of a new era. But only if they work together.

New mayor Bev Craig was elected using the supplementary vote which uses voters’ second preference if no one wins more than half the vote in the first round. Despite the Burnham bounce, Labour received only 47% of the vote in the first round, well down on Burnham who never achieved below 63% in his three campaigns. But when second preferences kicked in, it’s estimated that about seven in 10 progressives who had backed other parties piled in behind Craig.

This confirms that we live in an age of bloc politics; left v right. Few now shift between blocs, but many move parties within their respective bloc. The Manchester mayoral vote saw the progressive bloc consolidate behind Labour, just as it did for Andy Burnham in Makerfield, but they backed the Greens in Gorton and Denton earlier in the year and Plaid Cymru in a Senedd byelection at the end of last year.

Two things are happening at once in this progressive bloc: voters are becoming more promiscuous in who they really support and highly disciplined in how they actually vote. Voters seem to be backing the best placed progressive candidate to beat the right, but only when they are deemed sufficiently progressive. This amorphous mix of progressive voters appears to be capable of ruthlessly flocking around the same candidate.

Given that UK politics is likely to remain incredibly fragmented, two challenges face progressive parties and voters, in........

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