“Invincible.” That was how Vladimir Putin described Russia’s latest generation of ballistic missiles in 2018. In 2022 he would unleash this arsenal to strike across Ukraine, hitting command centres, critical infrastructure and airfields. Then, in 2023, Ukraine received Patriot air defence systems from its international partners. The US-supplied missile interceptor would prove to be an effective shield against Russian strikes.

But this year, supplies of Patriot missiles have run out and Kyiv has suffered the consequences. Intercepts have gone from more than 70% to none, so that night after night Russia strikes Ukraine’s infrastructure with impunity. This tragedy was long foretold, and there are no quick fixes.

While the military narrative of the war has largely been of cheap mass-produced Ukrainian weapons overwhelming exquisite Russian military hardware, most of the serious damage from Russia’s long-range strikes has come from cruise and ballistic missiles, and Ukraine’s campaign has suffered for want of them. Countering ballistic missiles is not a simple or cheap activity.

To intercept a tactical ballistic missile, such as Russia’s Iskander, a defensive system needs to be remarkably sophisticated. Its target will be descending from the high atmosphere at more than five times the speed of sound. The incoming missile will also be manoeuvring through the air, rather than following a predictable ballistic trajectory. The defensive........

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