Back in July the June inflation figures killed off chances of a rate rise; yesterday, however, the September inflation figures all but guarantee a rate rise next week.

The September figures are a bit quirky because the Bureau of Statistics published both the monthly and old quarterly ones.

The monthly measure had annual inflation jumping up from 4.0% to 4.3%; while the quarterly measure – which the RBA has in the past said was more important – remained steady at 3.9% (and if anything fell very slightly):

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But that did not matter: all focus was on the 4.3% number, even though monthly figures are much more erratic and subject to jumps and falls in certain prices.

In September, as was the case in July and August, petrol prices were the big driver. Automotive fuel rose 9.4% in the month. They also look set to rise another 7% when the October figures come out next month:

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It means that around half of the increase in inflation in September came from fuel prices. This was followed by holiday costs, which always go at the start of spring:

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The impact of petrol prices over the past three months is, of course, all driven by oil prices oddly refusing to react to either the RBA raising rates or Donald Trump declaring mission accomplished in........

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