Pakistan's role in helping calm one of the Middle East's most dangerous confrontations has generated a wave of optimism in Islamabad. Donald Trump has praised Pakistan's leadership. Relations with Saudi Arabia are warm. Iran is once again discussing trade and connectivity. Gulf capitals are paying attention. Commentators speak of a regional peace dividend. Ministers talk of investment, trade corridors and a new era of economic opportunity. The mood is understandable. The conclusion is not.Brokering peace may be good diplomacy. It may improve Pakistan's standing abroad. It may create opportunities for trade, investment and regional cooperation. But it is not a development strategy.

Pakistan's history suggests that confusing the two has been one of the country's most persistent and costly mistakes. Every decade, Pakistan's elite discover a new reason why prosperity is finally around the corner. In the 1960s, it was alliance with the West. In the 1980s, it was the anti-Soviet jihad. After 9/11, it was Pakistan's status as a frontline state in the War on Terror. During the last decade, it was CPEC. Today, it is Pakistan's role as a regional mediator, a beneficiary of improving Gulf ties, and—perhaps most importantly—the belief that Pakistan has once again become strategically valuable to the United States. The names change. The story does not.

Listen carefully to the current debate and a familiar pattern emerges. Pakistan's geography is finally about to pay off. Regional tensions are easing. Trade routes are reopening. Gulf money is returning. Washington is paying attention again. Economic transformation, we are assured, is only a matter of time. Pakistan's future has spent so long being "just around the corner" that it is beginning to look less like a destination and more like a permanent address. The enthusiasm surrounding Donald Trump's recent praise for Pakistan is particularly revealing. In some quarters, Trump's warmer tone has been treated almost as an economic indicator. A successful diplomatic intervention, a few encouraging statements from Washington, renewed attention from Gulf capitals, and suddenly an old conviction reappears: Pakistan matters again. One might have thought the country had already conducted enough experiments with this theory.

Pakistan mattered enormously during the Cold War. Pakistan mattered enormously during the Afghan jihad. Pakistan mattered enormously after September 11. Strategic importance, it turns........

© The Friday Times