Iran may have miscalculated again.

The attack on an American Apache helicopter near the Strait of Hormuz appears to have been intended as a reminder that Tehran still retains escalation options. Instead, it triggered another round of American strikes against radar, surveillance, drone and military facilities along Iran’s Hormuz coastline. Washington described the operation as proportional. Yet the significance of the strikes lies less in the immediate military damage and more in their strategic objective. The United States is steadily degrading the capabilities that enable Iran to threaten maritime traffic and project power around the Strait. At a time when a framework agreement between Washington and Tehran appears closer than at any point since the war began, the latest exchange raises a more important question: Is Iran strengthening its bargaining position or steadily weakening it?

For months, the Iranian leadership, and particularly the IRGC, have behaved as if time is on their side. The evidence increasingly suggests the opposite. Since the conflict began, Iran’s military position has deteriorated. The nuclear programme has not recovered from earlier attacks on key facilities. Air defence networks have suffered repeated setbacks. Command structures have been exposed. Now Washington appears increasingly focused on reducing Iran’s remaining naval, missile and drone capabilities around Hormuz. The trend line is moving in one direction.

The economic picture is equally troubling. Iran initially viewed Hormuz as a source of leverage. The threat of disruption was expected to raise costs for the United States and its partners and create pressure for concessions. Instead, the prolonged crisis has increasingly imposed costs on Iran itself. American naval deployments have complicated Iranian commercial activity. Gulf states have accelerated efforts to reduce vulnerability through alternative routes and infrastructure. Saudi Arabia continues investing in transport corridors and railway projects that lessen dependence on maritime chokepoints. The UAE has expanded routes that bypass Hormuz altogether. Every month of uncertainty gives neighbouring states a greater incentive to reduce their exposure to Iranian leverage.

Even oil markets have not behaved as many anticipated. Predictions of sustained price shocks repeatedly failed to materialise. Trump understood early that managing expectations was as important as managing military operations. Repeated signals that negotiations remained possible helped prevent the market panic that Tehran may have expected. The result is that Iran has not secured the economic leverage that a prolonged disruption of Hormuz was supposed to generate.

A genuinely rational actor would assess changing realities and adjust course before costs become unsustainable.

A genuinely rational actor would assess changing realities and adjust course before costs become unsustainable.

Regional politics are moving in a similar direction. One of Tehran’s most serious miscalculations has been its handling of........

© The Friday Times