On the balance of probability, the next round of war looks inevitable. To see why, let us first consider the two possibilities: that the US–Israel duo chooses not to attack Iran, and that it does.

The first option would mean that the Straits of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb remain under the control of Iran and Ansar Allah (Houthis) for the foreseeable future. The US is pushed out of the Gulf once and for all. Iran is established as a regional hegemon, dictating terms to the rest of the Gulf, with its reach extending to the borders of Israel. All of Yemen comes under Ansar Allah's control, including the three provinces Saudi Arabia captured in 1934. This would mean the end of the petrodollar and of the Greater Israel project, and a total collapse of the American economy, turning the American dream into a nightmare. Anyone likes to think, US-led Middle East would choose this?

The second option means a massive air attack on Iran, and the possibility of sending ground troops to protect Kuwait and the UAE from a possible Iranian invasion, if not into the Iranian mainland itself. Once the US–Israel air campaign begins, one should not rule out the possibility of Iranian ground forces entering the UAE and Kuwait, as is also being discussed in some quarters. An attack on Iran's critical infrastructure would invite the same on Saudi, Emirati and Israeli infrastructure, along with massive attacks on major cities. A study conducted by an American professor Steven Starr reveals that 400–500 Iranian missiles would level Tel Aviv. Another 150–200 would do the same to Haifa.........

© The Friday Times