Burke delivers overdue migration baby, but is it sturdy enough to withstand the critics?
Tony Burke was late to the National Press Club to announce the government's migration policy on Thursday. Six weeks late, to be precise.
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After the embarrassment of having to abort his earlier press club appearance, followed by a degree of faffing around by senior ministers over the detail, and unsuccessful negotiations between government and opposition, Burke produced a package that, on his own admission, did not contain all he'd wished.
It attacks some problems. But the government will be wedged between those who think the changes don't go far enough and critics who believe they're draconian.
The government will stop the entry of the families of most overseas students, which will make life harder for some and have the effect, presumably, of discouraging others from coming at all. Universities will be concerned.
Working holiday makers wanting to stay two or three years will face the luck of the draw, under a new ballot system. Only 5000 will get a third year, compared to 31,000 last year. Some farmers and businesses in regional areas looking for labour will be worried.
A proposed "No Further Stay" condition for visitor visas is a blunt instrument, but is aimed at dealing with a large loophole that's being exploited.
Burke candidly anticipated he'll come under attack for toughening compliance measures, with greater use of detention as the government tries to deport overstayers. But again, there is a substantial challenge in a system where enforcement has become too loose.
The measures won't satisfy those who desire a much smaller migration program. They are about achieving the budget target of 225,000 net overseas migration by 2027-28, not going lower. Voters wanting a substantially bigger squeeze on the total intake will still be looking to One Nation, or waiting for the Coalition, which is still wrestling with its own alternative.
In terms of numbers, it's a delicate balance. As Burke told Parliament: "If you make cuts too deep, too........
