Crossroads Asia | Environment | Central Asia

Setting Realistic Expectations for Kazakhstan’s Regional Ecological Summit

The Regional Ecological Summit could kickstart a wider climate activism campaign in the greater Central Asian region, or it could just be a short-term, pro-green mirage.

Kazakhstan will host the Regional Ecological Summit 2026 (RES-2026) from April 22-24. From a logistical point of view, the summit will invariably be a success as Astana has repeatedly demonstrated that it can host high-profile events. The real question is whether meetings involving government leaders, senior officials, industry and business leaders, and representatives from international organizations and civil society will yield lasting solutions to Central Asia’s pressing environmental threats. 

Good intentions, optimistic speeches, and a good photo op are not enough to save Central Asia’s environment and ensure the future and safety of regional populations.

The first-ever Regional Ecological Summit (RES) will take place in Astana, with several regional leaders in attendance, including the presidents of the five Central Asian countries, plus Armenia, and Mongolia, as well as the prime minister of Azerbaijan.

Many conferences and panels will take place at the summit and on its sidelines, including a summit of the International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea (IFAS). According to the summit’s website, other panels will address issues like a climate investment, global climate cooperation, mountains and sustainable development, and forest belts and green barriers. There will also be a meeting of the ministers of environmental, climate and ecological affairs from the Organization of Turkic States.

The goal of the RES-2026 is to serve as a “regional platform for dialogue and solidarity” by promoting cooperation, raising awareness of priority environmental issues, identifying practical solutions, and shaping action plans. 

It is unclear if Astana plans to make the RES a regular initiative. The aftermath of the summit will demonstrate if it can serve as an effective pro-environment mechanism in a region where other organizations and mechanisms already exist aimed at environmental issues, like IFAS, the Central Asia Climate Change Conference, the Interstate Commission for Water Coordination (ICWC) of Central Asia, and the Tajikistan-led Dushanbe Water Process.

Properly explaining and analyzing each environmental threat that the five Central Asian countries and their Eurasian regional neighbors face would require far more space than this commentary has. Suffice to say, the five Central Asian states face a variety of environmental challenges. 

Water security arguably poses the gravest threat due to droughts, the human-caused loss of the Aral Sea, the drying of the northern shores of the Caspian Sea (affecting Kazakhstan and Russia), and the Taliban-constructed Qosh Tepa Canal, which will divert the flow of the Amu Darya, potentially reducing water access for neighboring states.

Air pollution is another crisis, given the region’s ongoing reliance on coal to power industry; cities like Tashkent have particularly high levels of air pollution. The 2025 World Air Quality Report ranked Tajikistan third-worst in the world for air quality after Pakistan and Bangladesh. The other Central Asian countries did not score much better. Two other regional countries were in the top 20: Uzbekistan (10) and Kyrgyzstan (19), while Kazakhstan scored the best (or at least not as bad, at number 27). Turkmenistan was absent due to a lack of available data, which in itself is not surprising, as Ashgabat is not keen on transparency.

There are also sandstorms, which are exacerbated by deforestation. The loss of the Aral Sea means more dry land is at the mercy of winds that can carry sand and salt residue to populated areas. Moreover, the Soviet nuclear tests at the Semipalatinsk Test Site in Kazakhstan will continue to affect the public health of Kazakhstanis for generations to come.

Climate change will only worsen matters, as Central Asia is particularly at risk of the most extreme effects, as demonstrated by recent heatwaves exacerbated by climate change, according to scientific research. Droughts, flooding, and glacier melting will all be felt more harshly.

A topical issue is the conflict between Iran and the United States. Due to air strikes against oil refineries, the residents of Tehran have had to suffer through acid rain. It is unclear if the environmental consequences of the war will be felt across Central Asia, but the air pollution caused by the air strikes will certainly not help other environmental crises – at the very least, depending on the winds, air quality could worsen in some parts of Central Asia.

While Astana is hyping the upcoming summit, expectations should be moderate. The RES-2026 will likely conclude with a declaration by the participating heads of state pledging to work together to address environmental threats. There will also be pledges by international donors and other organizations on specific projects, such as planting saxaul trees in the drylands of Uzbekistan’s Aral region. Hopefully, there will be agreements to build more solar power plants. The World Bank recently published a report on energy resilience in Central Asia (specifically the Bank’s projects in Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan), so it’s likely the global financial institution will discuss this topic during the summit.

In contrast to the optimistic proposals expected from the upcoming summit, most Central Asian states have refused to make difficult decisions necessary to truly address the region’s environmental challenges. There may be a level of denial by some governments that environmental challenges even exist. Unfortunately, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev himself called the U.N. climate change (COP) meetings a “fraud” last year and quoted U.S. President Donald Trump calling climate change itself a fraud.

A recent roundtable at the Atlantic Council, a Washington, D.C. think tank, brought together Kazakhstani government officials with representatives from several U.S. companies and research centers. During the Q&A session, the author of this piece specifically asked about the upcoming summit and how it fits within Tokayev’s vision of environmental protection and economic development. One official explained that Astana is investing in nuclear energy to be more environmentally friendly, and also mentioned the success of rising water levels on the Kazakhstani portion of the Aral Sea. While these are notable accomplishments, the Kazakh government also wants to build additional coal-fired power plants by the end of the decade. In other words, there are mixed signals coming from Astana. Other Central Asian governments also send conflicting signals about their willingness to address environmental issues.

Therefore, the potential impact of the first-ever RES is debatable. Representation will be broad, and many issues will be discussed, but the overarching challenge is to convince governments to make fundamental domestic changes and to engage in long-term international cooperation and coordination to address transnational issues like water security. The Regional Ecological Summit could kickstart a wider climate activism campaign in the greater Central Asian region, or it could just be a short-term, pro-green mirage.

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Kazakhstan will host the Regional Ecological Summit 2026 (RES-2026) from April 22-24. From a logistical point of view, the summit will invariably be a success as Astana has repeatedly demonstrated that it can host high-profile events. The real question is whether meetings involving government leaders, senior officials, industry and business leaders, and representatives from international organizations and civil society will yield lasting solutions to Central Asia’s pressing environmental threats. 

Good intentions, optimistic speeches, and a good photo op are not enough to save Central Asia’s environment and ensure the future and safety of regional populations.

The first-ever Regional Ecological Summit (RES) will take place in Astana, with several regional leaders in attendance, including the presidents of the five Central Asian countries, plus Armenia, and Mongolia, as well as the prime minister of Azerbaijan.

Many conferences and panels will take place at the summit and on its sidelines, including a summit of the International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea (IFAS). According to the summit’s website, other panels will address issues like a climate investment, global climate cooperation, mountains and sustainable development, and forest belts and green barriers. There will also be a meeting of the ministers of environmental, climate and ecological affairs from the Organization of Turkic States.

The goal of the RES-2026 is to serve as a “regional platform for dialogue and solidarity” by promoting cooperation, raising awareness of priority environmental issues, identifying practical solutions, and shaping action plans. 

It is unclear if Astana plans to make the RES a regular initiative. The aftermath of the summit will demonstrate if it can serve as an effective pro-environment mechanism in a region where other organizations and mechanisms already exist aimed at environmental issues, like IFAS, the Central Asia Climate Change Conference, the Interstate Commission for Water Coordination (ICWC) of Central Asia, and the Tajikistan-led Dushanbe Water Process.

Properly explaining and analyzing each environmental threat that the five Central Asian countries and their Eurasian regional neighbors face would require far more space than this commentary has. Suffice to say, the five Central Asian states face a variety of environmental challenges. 

Water security arguably poses the gravest threat due to droughts, the human-caused loss of the Aral Sea, the drying of the northern shores of the Caspian Sea (affecting Kazakhstan and Russia), and the Taliban-constructed Qosh Tepa Canal, which will divert the flow of the Amu Darya, potentially reducing water access for neighboring states.

Air pollution is another crisis, given the region’s ongoing reliance on coal to power industry; cities like Tashkent have particularly high levels of air pollution. The 2025 World Air Quality Report ranked Tajikistan third-worst in the world for air quality after Pakistan and Bangladesh. The other Central Asian countries did not score much better. Two other regional countries were in the top 20: Uzbekistan (10) and Kyrgyzstan (19), while Kazakhstan scored the best (or at least not as bad, at number 27). Turkmenistan was absent due to a lack of available data, which in itself is not surprising, as Ashgabat is not keen on transparency.

There are also sandstorms, which are exacerbated by deforestation. The loss of the Aral Sea means more dry land is at the mercy of winds that can carry sand and salt residue to populated areas. Moreover, the Soviet nuclear tests at the Semipalatinsk Test Site in Kazakhstan will continue to affect the public health of Kazakhstanis for generations to come.

Climate change will only worsen matters, as Central Asia is particularly at risk of the most extreme effects, as demonstrated by recent heatwaves exacerbated by climate change, according to scientific research. Droughts, flooding, and glacier melting will all be felt more harshly.

A topical issue is the conflict between Iran and the United States. Due to air strikes against oil refineries, the residents of Tehran have had to suffer through acid rain. It is unclear if the environmental consequences of the war will be felt across Central Asia, but the air pollution caused by the air strikes will certainly not help other environmental crises – at the very least, depending on the winds, air quality could worsen in some parts of Central Asia.

While Astana is hyping the upcoming summit, expectations should be moderate. The RES-2026 will likely conclude with a declaration by the participating heads of state pledging to work together to address environmental threats. There will also be pledges by international donors and other organizations on specific projects, such as planting saxaul trees in the drylands of Uzbekistan’s Aral region. Hopefully, there will be agreements to build more solar power plants. The World Bank recently published a report on energy resilience in Central Asia (specifically the Bank’s projects in Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan), so it’s likely the global financial institution will discuss this topic during the summit.

In contrast to the optimistic proposals expected from the upcoming summit, most Central Asian states have refused to make difficult decisions necessary to truly address the region’s environmental challenges. There may be a level of denial by some governments that environmental challenges even exist. Unfortunately, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev himself called the U.N. climate change (COP) meetings a “fraud” last year and quoted U.S. President Donald Trump calling climate change itself a fraud.

A recent roundtable at the Atlantic Council, a Washington, D.C. think tank, brought together Kazakhstani government officials with representatives from several U.S. companies and research centers. During the Q&A session, the author of this piece specifically asked about the upcoming summit and how it fits within Tokayev’s vision of environmental protection and economic development. One official explained that Astana is investing in nuclear energy to be more environmentally friendly, and also mentioned the success of rising water levels on the Kazakhstani portion of the Aral Sea. While these are notable accomplishments, the Kazakh government also wants to build additional coal-fired power plants by the end of the decade. In other words, there are mixed signals coming from Astana. Other Central Asian governments also send conflicting signals about their willingness to address environmental issues.

Therefore, the potential impact of the first-ever RES is debatable. Representation will be broad, and many issues will be discussed, but the overarching challenge is to convince governments to make fundamental domestic changes and to engage in long-term international cooperation and coordination to address transnational issues like water security. The Regional Ecological Summit could kickstart a wider climate activism campaign in the greater Central Asian region, or it could just be a short-term, pro-green mirage.

Wilder Alejandro Sánchez

Wilder Alejandro Sánchez is President of Second Floor Strategies, a consulting firm in Washington, D.C. This article is based on a presentation given by the author titled "The Caspian Sea at the Regional Ecological Summit 2026” for the webinar Water Security and Transboundary Cooperation in Central Asia, organized by George Washington University’s Central Asia Program and Civitas University in December 2025. The author also recently discussed the Summit in a Policy Brief for George Washington University’s Central Asia Program, titled “Kazakhstan’s Regional Ecological Summit: A Turning Point for Environmental Protection?”

Central Asia climate change

Central Asia environment

Kazakhstan climate change

Regional Ecological Summit 2026

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