The Pulse | Diplomacy | South Asia

India and Canada Reset: Pragmatism Takes Precedence Over Recriminations

Carney has opted for energetic, pragmatic action – including repairing ties with India – in the face of U.S. instability.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s four-day trip to India, taking place from February 27 to March 2, 2026, marked a significant shift in relations between the two countries. In a turbulent world characterized by disruptions in trade, security, and politics largely influenced by Trump-era U.S. policies, both New Delhi and Ottawa appeared eager to put aside their recent conflicts and develop a strategic partnership. Although some fundamental differences remain, the visit conveys a message of pragmatism and a high dose of optimism aimed at overcoming recent troubles.

The visit came a month after Carney’s address at the World Economic Forum in Davos on January 20, wherein he stunned attendees with his clear-eyed assessment of the need to move beyond shock at the disruptive position taken by U.S. President Donald Trump and move to construct a viable new order. Unlike his predecessor, Justin Trudeau, whose eight-day official visit to India in February 2018 contained only half-a-day’s official engagement, Carney came prepared to make the most of his official invitation. At Davos he’d remarked that “we’re not at the table, we’re on the menu,” opining that middle powers must secure their place in a fragmented global order or risk being victimized. In New Delhi, he recognized India as more than a typical middle power, one whose potential and global ambitions go well beyond. 

In September 2023, the Indian media derided Trudeau as his plane developed a technical snag, compelling him to extend his stay in New Delhi during his trip to attend the G-20 summit. Trudeau, seen as sympathetic toward the supporters of Sikh separatism in Canada, had a tense meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, not least because the latter had been accused by Ottawa of conducting lethal covert operations on Canadian soil. 

Amid a stunning shift in the global context, during Carney’s visit both countries focused on more immediate concerns. With New Delhi’s rising influence in mind, Carney seemed to have prepared well to indulge New Delhi’s sense of ostentation in order to achieve tangible results. 

The visit thus resulted in a slew of accords spanning food, energy, critical minerals, space, defense, education, AI and emerging technologies, each having the potential to bind the two nations in a shared economic future. Of particular importance was a nuclear energy deal involving the supply of uranium from Canada to India. India’s energy needs are projected to double by 2050. While oil and gas are expected to dominate the global energy mix, New Delhi is betting big on nuclear power to fill the gap, insulate itself from events like the ongoing Iran-Israel-U.S. war. India currently has 24 operating reactors along with ambitious plans to deploy dozens more to generate 100 GW of electricity by 2047. Canada, in fact, had been the original source of India’s first major nuclear research reactor, CIRUS, which was provided in an arrangement that also included the United States. The reactor went critical in July 1960. 

Many decades and much progress later, an uninterrupted supply of uranium is a must for India, and that’s where Canada has stepped in by promising a steady supply. In a deal worth $1.91 billion, Canadian firm Cameco will supply uranium ore concentrate to India for nuclear energy from 2027 to 2035. Cameco previously supplied uranium to India under a five-year contract between 2015 and 2020. The new deal gives Ottawa crucial business and also some much-needed goodwill in India. 

The second important understanding reached was regarding a new Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), which will be concluded this year. The free trade agreement aims to increase two-way trade between the two countries to $50 billion by 2030. The present trade volume is only $8.66 billion. Talks have been ongoing for the last 15 years, but at the heart of newfound urgency to conclude the deal is the imperative to reduce exposure to inconsistent, punitive U.S. trade tariffs.

While Canada has been singled out for some selective umbrage by Trump, New Delhi has endured a case of whiplash at the rapidly changing positions emerging from Washington. The recent euphoria at the successful completion of a deal framework soon collapsed under the American assault directed at curbing Indian purchases of Russian embargoed petroleum. This was followed in short order by the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling striking down the original tariffs, only to have a baffling follow-on regime put in place. Regardless of Indian strategic inclinations to support the present American global position, it obviously feels the need to move beyond the whims of Trump’s policy shifts to a more solid position. 

New Delhi is also betting big on Carney’s promise to rebuild strained relations by addressing Indian concerns regarding Sikh separatist activity within Canada, which continues to support an independent homeland in the Indian state of Punjab. Suspected Indian involvement in the murder of a Sikh activist in 2023 had been the source of a major diplomatic row between the two countries. Unlike Trudeau, Carney’s schedule didn’t include a trip to Punjab. On March 3, in his next stop, Sydney, Carney refused to take a stand on whether he thinks Indian agents are actively interfering in Canada’s affairs, saying there’s an ongoing criminal matter related to the murder and he doesn’t want to prejudice the outcome of that case. While India would have certainly appreciated a certification of innocence, it likely prefers Carney’s ambiguity to Trudeau’s confrontational politics. 

This was, however, predictable. Carney has opted for energetic, pragmatic action in the face of U.S. instability. He does not pretend to be initiating an era of friendship between Canada and India that aims to overlook the tumultuous past. Instead, he seems to envision a period of transformative partnership, treating both India and potentially China as important trade and economic partners who can serve mutual interests. 

Carney, however, was careful to suggest that “the opportunity set with China, which is large in absolute terms, is much narrower than it is with India.” His offerings to India also came with a sobering reminder. On March 1, while delivering a speech at the Canada-India Growth and Investment Forum in Mumbai, he acknowledged that India and Canada will not always agree. Yet, he said, Canada is being “pragmatic in recognizing that progress is often incremental, that interests of nations can diverge, and that not every partner will share all our values.” It remains to be seen just how far such pragmatism can go in paving the way for a possible strategic partnership between these two middle powers seeking security and economic progress in a new global context bereft of American leadership and engagement. 

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Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s four-day trip to India, taking place from February 27 to March 2, 2026, marked a significant shift in relations between the two countries. In a turbulent world characterized by disruptions in trade, security, and politics largely influenced by Trump-era U.S. policies, both New Delhi and Ottawa appeared eager to put aside their recent conflicts and develop a strategic partnership. Although some fundamental differences remain, the visit conveys a message of pragmatism and a high dose of optimism aimed at overcoming recent troubles.

The visit came a month after Carney’s address at the World Economic Forum in Davos on January 20, wherein he stunned attendees with his clear-eyed assessment of the need to move beyond shock at the disruptive position taken by U.S. President Donald Trump and move to construct a viable new order. Unlike his predecessor, Justin Trudeau, whose eight-day official visit to India in February 2018 contained only half-a-day’s official engagement, Carney came prepared to make the most of his official invitation. At Davos he’d remarked that “we’re not at the table, we’re on the menu,” opining that middle powers must secure their place in a fragmented global order or risk being victimized. In New Delhi, he recognized India as more than a typical middle power, one whose potential and global ambitions go well beyond. 

In September 2023, the Indian media derided Trudeau as his plane developed a technical snag, compelling him to extend his stay in New Delhi during his trip to attend the G-20 summit. Trudeau, seen as sympathetic toward the supporters of Sikh separatism in Canada, had a tense meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, not least because the latter had been accused by Ottawa of conducting lethal covert operations on Canadian soil. 

Amid a stunning shift in the global context, during Carney’s visit both countries focused on more immediate concerns. With New Delhi’s rising influence in mind, Carney seemed to have prepared well to indulge New Delhi’s sense of ostentation in order to achieve tangible results. 

The visit thus resulted in a slew of accords spanning food, energy, critical minerals, space, defense, education, AI and emerging technologies, each having the potential to bind the two nations in a shared economic future. Of particular importance was a nuclear energy deal involving the supply of uranium from Canada to India. India’s energy needs are projected to double by 2050. While oil and gas are expected to dominate the global energy mix, New Delhi is betting big on nuclear power to fill the gap, insulate itself from events like the ongoing Iran-Israel-U.S. war. India currently has 24 operating reactors along with ambitious plans to deploy dozens more to generate 100 GW of electricity by 2047. Canada, in fact, had been the original source of India’s first major nuclear research reactor, CIRUS, which was provided in an arrangement that also included the United States. The reactor went critical in July 1960. 

Many decades and much progress later, an uninterrupted supply of uranium is a must for India, and that’s where Canada has stepped in by promising a steady supply. In a deal worth $1.91 billion, Canadian firm Cameco will supply uranium ore concentrate to India for nuclear energy from 2027 to 2035. Cameco previously supplied uranium to India under a five-year contract between 2015 and 2020. The new deal gives Ottawa crucial business and also some much-needed goodwill in India. 

The second important understanding reached was regarding a new Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), which will be concluded this year. The free trade agreement aims to increase two-way trade between the two countries to $50 billion by 2030. The present trade volume is only $8.66 billion. Talks have been ongoing for the last 15 years, but at the heart of newfound urgency to conclude the deal is the imperative to reduce exposure to inconsistent, punitive U.S. trade tariffs.

While Canada has been singled out for some selective umbrage by Trump, New Delhi has endured a case of whiplash at the rapidly changing positions emerging from Washington. The recent euphoria at the successful completion of a deal framework soon collapsed under the American assault directed at curbing Indian purchases of Russian embargoed petroleum. This was followed in short order by the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling striking down the original tariffs, only to have a baffling follow-on regime put in place. Regardless of Indian strategic inclinations to support the present American global position, it obviously feels the need to move beyond the whims of Trump’s policy shifts to a more solid position. 

New Delhi is also betting big on Carney’s promise to rebuild strained relations by addressing Indian concerns regarding Sikh separatist activity within Canada, which continues to support an independent homeland in the Indian state of Punjab. Suspected Indian involvement in the murder of a Sikh activist in 2023 had been the source of a major diplomatic row between the two countries. Unlike Trudeau, Carney’s schedule didn’t include a trip to Punjab. On March 3, in his next stop, Sydney, Carney refused to take a stand on whether he thinks Indian agents are actively interfering in Canada’s affairs, saying there’s an ongoing criminal matter related to the murder and he doesn’t want to prejudice the outcome of that case. While India would have certainly appreciated a certification of innocence, it likely prefers Carney’s ambiguity to Trudeau’s confrontational politics. 

This was, however, predictable. Carney has opted for energetic, pragmatic action in the face of U.S. instability. He does not pretend to be initiating an era of friendship between Canada and India that aims to overlook the tumultuous past. Instead, he seems to envision a period of transformative partnership, treating both India and potentially China as important trade and economic partners who can serve mutual interests. 

Carney, however, was careful to suggest that “the opportunity set with China, which is large in absolute terms, is much narrower than it is with India.” His offerings to India also came with a sobering reminder. On March 1, while delivering a speech at the Canada-India Growth and Investment Forum in Mumbai, he acknowledged that India and Canada will not always agree. Yet, he said, Canada is being “pragmatic in recognizing that progress is often incremental, that interests of nations can diverge, and that not every partner will share all our values.” It remains to be seen just how far such pragmatism can go in paving the way for a possible strategic partnership between these two middle powers seeking security and economic progress in a new global context bereft of American leadership and engagement. 

Shanthie Mariet D’Souza

Dr. Shanthie Mariet D’Souza is the founder & president, Mantraya Institute for Strategic Studies (MISS), a senior research fellow, University of Massachusetts Amherst and visiting faculty at the Naval War College, Goa, India.

Canada-India relations

India-Canada relations

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