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Home – Congressional & Capitol Hill News – The Congressional Budget Office, Like the Rest of Washington, Is Not Perfect

The Congressional Budget Office, Like the Rest of Washington, Is Not Perfect

Daniel Kowalski | Ethan Scroggins | Christopher Lynch

How many taxpayer dollars could additional anti-fraud measures save?  

The Congressional Budget Office can’t give a straight answer. Yet to anyone who’s paid attention to the deluge of fraud cases uncovered, it’s obvious that the answer is “plenty.”

CBO says it’s unclear how much money such an investment could save. It has a habit of including the costs of anti-fraud provisions in its estimates while failing to include the savings. When it does provide estimates of savings, they are often substantially below what is expected by members of Congress, which helps explain the general sense that CBO has lost credibility with its primary client.

CBO has made errors estimating high-profile legislation this century, and always in the same direction.

It understates the costs from liberal tax and spending bills, and it also understates the savings from conservative initiatives to rein them in.

When CBO scored the Affordable Care Act, it estimated that the law would reduce the deficit by $118 billion. One of Medicare’s public trustees rebuked the CBO, calling it out for double-counting certain Medicare savings and missing a minimum of $340 billion. Republicans on the Senate Budget Committee released a retrospective analysis in 2014 that showed a $300 billion swing from that initial CBO estimate, with the ACA adding $131 billion to the deficit.

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