Each morning, thousands of parents across New Zealand make the same tricky judgement call: is their child well enough to go to school?

There are now concerns this decision might become yet more difficult, as a government drive to lift attendance puts schools under greater pressure to address absenteeism.

Under new targets, 80% of students are expected to attend school more than 90% of the time by 2030. Schools are also now required to have attendance management plans, with increasingly intensive responses as students miss more school.

This makes attendance more something to be measured, monitored and managed, using data, reports and rewards.

But as schools improve across these areas, are they also getting better at understanding why children are away in the first place?

What does absenteeism really tell us?

It’s easy to understand why attendance has become such a focus for the government.

A Ministry of Education analysis of pre-pandemic data suggests children who attend school more regularly generally achieve better educational outcomes and report higher levels of wellbeing.

The wider evidence, however, is more nuanced. Most studies show that attendance and achievement move together, but far fewer can determine how much of that relationship is directly caused........

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