This year’s El Niño, the natural weather phenomenon that drives variations in temperature and winds across the Pacific, has prompted the UK government to pledge £15 million to help vulnerable countries such as Malawi, Kenya and Zambia prepare for droughts, floods and food shortages.

But the UK’s economic response will go beyond international aid. The Bank of England has identified El Niño as one of the key factors that could increase food inflation in 2027.

This connection between a climate pattern in the Pacific Ocean and supermarket prices (and possibly interest rates) in the UK is a clear demonstration of how extreme weather is an economic issue as well as an environmental one.

Environmentally speaking, the effects of El Niño can be devastating, bringing severe drought to some regions and severe flooding to others. And a stronger El Niño has a larger influence on global weather patterns than a weaker one.

This year’s event, already the strongest on record, is expected to peak later this year, and could cause global economic problems if it has a negative effect on major agricultural producers or transport routes.

Poor harvests can cause international agricultural........

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