Australia relies on diesel to move freight, run mines and harvest crops. We’re now the world’s top importer of seaborne diesel, importing around 28 billion litres of the fuel last year.

Diesel is the fuel most exposed to the ongoing US–Iran war as it’s the biggest export product for Persian Gulf refineries. Last year, Russia was the world’s biggest diesel exporter. But Ukrainian drones have now damaged many Russian refineries, making supplies scarcer. This year’s turmoil has shown the risks and costs of this dependency.

In Australia, diesel prices have gone as high as A$3.20 a litre this year. Prices remain very high at around $2.79 a litre – almost a dollar more than this time last year.

Between March and August, Australia paid an extra A$9 billion to import diesel, according to the Climate Council – more than twice as much as any other country, or about $324 for every Australian.

Wars in the Middle East and Eastern Europe have done more than drive prices higher. They have redrawn the global map of buyers and sellers.

My analysis of over 21,000 diesel shipments since January 2025 exposes the shift. Exports from the Gulf have largely vanished and Russian exports have collapsed. Refineries in the United States and Asia are filling the gap.

Two big suppliers knocked out

On February 28, Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz. This blocked most crude and diesel shipments through the Gulf.

Saudi Arabia was able to keep exporting diesel from its refineries on the Red Sea. But this lifeline is fragile, as recent drone strikes on its East-West pipeline proved.

Russia was the world’s largest........

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