In the months since the Bondi terror attack in December 2025, One Nation’s popularity has surged. Opinion poll after opinion poll has support for the right-wing populist party surging, mostly at the expense of the Coalition, which has been unable to find its footing since its drubbing at the 2025 federal election.

There was always going to be a point at which that surge would abate, and recent opinion polls show we might have reached it. In the latest Resolve poll, for example, One Nation’s primary vote dropped three percentage points to 26%. At the same time, leader Pauline Hanson, who has been shown to be the most popular pick for prime minister in some recent polls, dropped 8 points to 25%.

Other polls have also shown One Nation’s momentum stalling, with its primary dropping back below Labor’s – but remaining well ahead of the Coalition.

Does this mean it will head back to being, and polling like, a minor party?

It’s not that simple.

Other pollsters such as YouGov paint a more mixed picture, showing some growth in One Nation support – but an improvement for the Labor government after the distribution of preferences.

Taken together, these polls tend to suggest that One Nation is struggling to move its primary beyond the 30% barrier. However, it is maintaining a solid second place in the electorate – ahead of the Coalition.

There are two factors that might explain the recent tapering of its support: Hanson’s controversial appearance at the National Press Club, and the........

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