The UK’s prime minister, Andy Burnham, is facing his first major test with the public over the upcoming early release of thousands of prisoners. These plans are part of the Sentencing Act 2026, passed by Keir Starmer’s government in response to an independent review of sentencing.

The review recommended a model whereby eligible prisoners could be released at the one-third point of their custodial term, if they engaged constructively with the prison regime. (If not, they could stay in custody until the halfway point or longer.)

But the proposals as enacted under the Sentencing Act simply mean many prisoners will automatically be released earlier. The new law also reduces the use of short sentences, which have contributed to recent increases in the UK prison population.

This was a response born of crisis, designed to stop the operational collapse of a prison estate running close to absolute capacity. Nonetheless, it can be defended on public protection grounds.

Reoffending rates are highest among people serving short sentences. Diverting them into community supervision rather than inflicting a short, disruptive spell inside is likely to help bring these rates down.

Reoffending rates are markedly lower among those serving longer sentences, so releasing them earlier – particularly when those releases are planned and supervised – is unlikely to make much difference to public safety.

The rollout of this law change has placed Burnham in an unenviable position. Unless the prison population is reduced, police cells will back up and courts won’t be able to remand dangerous defendants, because there is nowhere to hold them. But this clashes with the emotional force of what criminologists call “penal populism” – the pursuit of penal policy for its electoral appeal, rather than its effectiveness.

Burnham is........

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