When voters enter polling booths across the United States next week to cast their ballots in the midterm elections, very few will be thinking explicitly about foreign policy.

In a recent survey by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, many people across the political spectrum named inflation and the cost of living as the issue which would affect the way they planned to vote (37% overall). This was followed by corruption (19%) and control of Congress (19%). The war in Iran barely registered, with just 2% putting it top of their list.

At first sight this appears to support the conventional wisdom that US voters generally don’t care about foreign policy. But traditional understandings of the electoral importance of foreign policy often reflect misunderstandings about the way in which voters assess candidates for office.

One reason a president’s foreign policy might lose him or his party votes is when their administration’s choices directly affect the daily lives of voters. War is the most obvious example of this. International politics may be complex and far removed from the daily lives of most citizens. But when blood and treasure is being invested in overseas conflict, the public tends to sit up and pay attention.

This does not always show up in polls. Historically, the proportion of voters who rank international affairs among the most important problems facing the country has averaged around three times lower than the proportion who........

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