When the leaders of the world’s two largest economies meet, the whole world watches the theatrics, the body language and the substance. Chinese President Xi Jinping’s state visit to the US and summit with President Donald Trump took place against the backdrop of a surge in China’s global trade, while Trump has been struggling with falling approval ratings at home.

The high-stakes summit centred on symbolic gestures, personal rapport, and major economic and technology tensions. It yielded few breakthroughs on structural disputes. The most tangible outcome was an agreement to extend a critical trade war tariff truce by an additional two months, shifting the deadline to mid-January 2027. China’s export boom defied Trump’s tariff campaign.

From a position of strength, Xi was in no rush to make concessions while Trump was constrained by the costly Iran war that was hurting both his popularity and American wallets. The tariffs to address a trade imbalance with China were actually “killing” the US.

Few nations have been monitoring the proceedings in Washington with greater scrutiny than India, as Xi-Trump discuss AI governance, tariff truces, critical minerals, regional maritime flashpoints, Taiwan and Indo-Pacific security. The outcome could affect New Delhi’s trade ambitions, supply chains, border security, Quad strategy, energy costs and influence.

New Delhi has been closely monitoring shifts in bilateral ties and supply chain vulnerabilities, and wondering about regional security frameworks like the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad). Indians have been also wondering why they were being singled out for 100% tariff for trading with Russia, while China was being wooed due high US economic dependences. As China has grown in global stature, it was clear that economic and military strength brings prestige and respect.

The largest and oldest democracies, India and the US, were meant to have congruence of interests and common global perceptions. That a day would come so quickly when the US would woo the communist arch rival and competitor from a relative position of weakness, was not anticipated.

At the core of it all, for some time now, India’s calculations have been based on an enduring fear of the emergence of a US-China “G2.” Something that could position India as a “second fiddle.” 

The new emerging duopoly could establish a bilateral framework to partition spheres of influence, resolve global disputes, and manage international security above the heads of leading middle powers or an aspiring great power like India. China could get emboldened towards Asian dominance. Early signals were visible during Trump’s second term that Washington preferred a highly transactional foreign policy. Trump’s tariffs were bound to actually give greater leverage to China which monopolizes........

© RT.com