Partisanship

The Midterm Winner Will Be Whichever Party Americans Hate Less

U.S. voters continue to be motivated more by whom they loathe than whom they like.

J.D. Tuccille | 10.9.2026 7:00 AM

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(Illustration: Kilmermedia/Dreamstime/Midjourney)

To the extent polls can be trusted, the smart money has Democrats prevailing in the upcoming midterm elections, taking control of the U.S. House and possibly the Senate. Whether or not that's true, the outcome is likely to be more a repudiation of the losers than an embrace of the winners. For years, American politics has been increasingly driven more by hostility to one party rather than by enthusiasm for its counterpart, especially among the independents who decide elections. With support for the two major parties continuing a decadeslong decline, the midterms are likely to be decided by revulsion.

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Opposition to the Other Party Drives Voters More Than Support for Their Own

Last week, Pew Research's Steven Shepard reported that more than half of Americans still consider themselves to be either Republicans or Democrats. These dedicated partisans "say they identify this way because they view their own party's policies as good for the country and the other party's policies as harmful."

"But many Americans don't consider themselves Republicans or Democrats," he added. "Instead, these Americans identify as independents (or with some other party) and many 'lean' toward one of the two major parties. For these Americans,........

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