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DALLAS—In the days before the Republican midterm convention here, political operatives said the purpose would be to rally party support and bring the attention of apathetic voters to the coming election. The two-day event achieved the first, but the second goal is a harder sell.

The president’s party has lost seats in Congress in around 90% of midterm elections since 1946. Presidents Bill Clinton and George W. Bush were notable exceptions, largely due to a strong economy and high approval ratings, respectively.

President Trump has neither. His approval rating is 18 points underwater according to the latest RealClearPolitics Average. Inflation remains around 3%, and while job growth has been strong, the ongoing Iran war and trade tensions with Canada have contributed to some market uncertainty.

With Republicans needing to defend 26 vulnerable seats in the House and six in the Senate, Democrats are favored to pick up seats in both chambers. Democrats have a 6.4% lead in the latest generic congressional ballot.  

As there was no need for nominations at this convention, the only real news out of the event was Trump’s plan to send stimulus checks to every American adult – but only if Republicans win both houses in November. Aside from that gambit, which critics described as a budget-busting bribe, the benefit for the GOP was the spectacle and the resulting 30-second clips on social media to start ringing the final bells of the midterm cycle. Party leaders are hopeful the momentum both wakes up voters and re-engages the same base that elected Trump in 2024. The strategy has its skeptics.

“The idea that Trump’s engagement at this level with the election is going to result in a re-engagement amongst sort of the hardest to mobilize elements of his coalition is a totally untested premise,” Texas Politics Project director of research Joshua Blank told RealClearPolitics. “Low-propensity voters are low-propensity voters because they’re not really that engaged,” the pollster added. “They’re not paying attention. They’re not locked in. And the real challenge with this convention is: Are they even going to notice?”

The convention scheduling itself was a risk for the White House. Typically, party conventions are held in late summer –........

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