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Holiday retail sales are set to top $1 trillion for the first time, powered by inflation

Bain projects holiday sales will top $1 trillion for the first time, but more than half of that nominal growth will come from higher prices

Getty Images / Bloomberg

Bain & Company forecast this month that U.S. holiday retail sales will top $1 trillion for the first time, driven by 4.5% year-over-year growth in nominal terms during the November-December season. But the firm cautioned that more than half of that growth will come from inflation pushing up prices rather than consumers buying more units.

Deloitte projected a broader holiday window — November 2026 through January 2027 — at between $1.70 trillion and $1.71 trillion, representing........

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