Twenty-five years after the attacks of September 11, the world finds itself staring at an uncomfortable rerun. According to a Washington Post investigation published this week, al Qaeda and its affiliates have quietly rebuilt at least eight bases across Afghanistan since the Taliban returned to power in 2021. Their footprint now reaches into fourteen of the country’s thirty-four provinces. These claims are supported by assessments from United Nations monitors, American officials, and Western security services working in parallel. The message they point to is simple and sobering: Afghanistan is once again becoming a sanctuary for militancy, and the consequences will not stay inside its borders.

The United Nations Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team has for several years described Afghanistan under the Taliban as a place where al Qaeda enjoys a close relationship with the ruling authorities. Reports from the world body speak of training camps and safe houses spread across the eastern and southern provinces, of fighters who move freely, and of a leadership structure that survives even without a publicly acknowledged emir.

Researchers at the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point describe an organization that, despite losing its footholds in Iraq and Syria, still has the patience and the network to wait, rebuild, and eventually act again. Patience has always been al Qaeda’s weapon of choice, and the group now has years of calm, undisturbed territory in which to use it.

A Shift in Strategy Rather Than Scale

What makes this moment different from the years before 2001 is the nature of the threat, and that difference matters more than the headline comparison to September 11 suggests. Analysts quoted by the Washington Post note that the groups now training on Afghan soil are, for now, more focused on regional fights than on grand plots against Western capitals. Al Qaeda’s core presence in the country is........

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