The crisis around the Strait of Hormuz is a warning Pakistan cannot ignore. Even if hostilities ease, energy supplies, freight rates and insurance costs may not quickly return to normal. Renewed confrontation or intermittent attacks could disrupt shipments and raise prices without a complete closure.

For Pakistan, a fuel shock means pressure on foreign exchange, higher transport and electricity costs, inflation and more expensive farming. Food prices and household budgets would suffer. Pakistan cannot control events in the Gulf, but it can reduce vulnerability through advance planning, increased domestic production and protection of agricultural supplies.

Prepare for different levels of disruption

The government should plan for short crises, repeated interruptions, prolonged insecurity and partial normalisation with unreliable shipping. Regular assessments should cover usable stocks, import commitments, alternative suppliers and the ability to manage prolonged disruption.

1. Establish a fuel security plan

Pakistan needs a clear picture of usable crude oil, petrol, diesel, furnace oil, LPG and LNG stocks, and how long they would last under different scenarios. Announced storage capacity is not the same as fuel available for use; committed or inaccessible stocks must be counted separately.

The plan should set minimum stock levels, identify port and refinery bottlenecks, and establish transparent allocation rules prioritising agriculture, freight, public transport, essential electricity generation, hospitals and other critical services.

Pakistan should diversify suppliers, ports and routes where feasible, avoid dependence on one vulnerable........

© Pakistan Observer