PAKISTAN’S import bill has become a recurring economic crisis rather than just a balance-of-payments statistic. It rose from $44.6 billion in FY2020 to $56.38 billion in FY2021 before peaking at $80.14 billion in FY2022. It then fell to $55.2 billion in FY2023, not because of structural reform but due to administrative import restrictions and a sharply depreciating rupee, before stabilizing at $54.8 billion in FY2024. This volatility, driven by global commodity prices, exchange-rate swings and ad hoc import controls, exposes Pakistan’s deep dependence on imports and vulnerability to external shocks. Reducing the import bill requires an evidence-based strategy focused on the three main drivers of import dependence: energy, food and industrial inputs.

The composition of that $54.8 billion bill is where the real problem lies. Petroleum products and crude oil alone swallowed over $12 billion. Liquefied natural gas added another $3.9 billion. Then there is palm oil at $2.8 billion, wheat at $1 billion and machinery at $6.7 billion. We are importing fuel to keep the lights on, food to feed a population of roughly 240 million people and machines to keep factories running. The question is not whether we need these imports; we clearly do. The question is whether we can reduce them through structural reform instead of administrative import controls.

Energy is the single biggest drain and it is also where the most meaningful savings lie. The IMF has been saying this for years, across multiple........

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