THE international community stands at the cusp of the third revolution in warfare and the fourth industrial revolution, driven by ‘Emerging Technologies,’ often called ‘New Technologies’ or ‘Disruptive Technologies.’ Their dual-use nature gives them numerous civilian and military applications, but their strategic significance lies in their potential to reshape deterrence and stability. Weapons built through the adaptation of new technologies, such as hypersonic weapons, advanced missile defenses, artificial intelligence, autonomous systems, high-performance data analytics, quantum computing and sensing, space-based sensors, anti-satellite weapons, and cyber-weapons, are transforming warfare due to increased speed, precision, and lethality. As a result, contemporary strategic analysts view these technologies’ potential to enhance the effectiveness of non-nuclear weapons as a game-changer in military and strategic affairs.

Nuclear experts are divided over the contribution of emerging and disruptive technologies to nuclear deterrence. Notably, emerging technology refers to technology that has not been demonstrated; new technology refers to technology that has been recently deployed; and disruptive technologies are those that could impact deterrence and stability. Their debate centers on whether these technologies strengthen or weaken deterrence, and the experts can be grouped into two distinct schools of........

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