THE common view is that nuclear proliferation begets proliferation or that it is an automatic chain reaction to a rival’s nuclear capability. Yet a critical review of latent nuclear weapon states’ nuclear policies, including Iran’s, shows that acquiring nuclear weapons is a political decision shaped by shifting assessments of the relative costs of acquisition and restraint. This article asks a narrower question: how does tacit nuclear blackmail shape nuclear decision-making in Tehran?

The decision to remain non-nuclear carries potential costs when a state perceives that restraint could undermine its fundamental security. Therefore, states weigh the cost of pursuing a nuclear capability against the prospective cost of restraint the latter depends on how threatening a rival’s nuclear capability is perceived to be. The off-ramp from the conflict between the US and Iran is not in sight. On October 23, 2026, President Donald Trump said, “We may do another little Epic Fury.” (Epic Fury-2 was published in this paper on October 27, 2026). This discussion examines Tehran’s nuclear policy by focusing on the historical determinants of the pursuit of nuclear weapons and trends in Iran’s contemporary strategic environment.

The Islamic Republic of Iran was established after the monarchy was toppled on February 11, 1979; since then, the Iranian ruling elite has viewed nuclear-armed Israel and the United States as an existential threat. Despite developing an advanced nuclear program........

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