UNITED States-Iran tensions are straining regional security and weakening the regional economy. Sporadic military actions between them show that an off-ramp is not on the horizon, underscoring the conflict’s deepening. The American strategy of attrition and Iran’s retaliatory actions raise alarms because they could escalate the conflict, with catastrophic consequences. Indeed, the recent US strikes on an Iranian wedding party and an oil tanker have further complicated the mediators’ efforts to restart the negotiations for the execution of the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding by convening the technical committees’ meetings.

The US military is unmatched, but protracted asymmetrical warfare has its own dynamics. Therefore, achieving the desired objectives with military might seems impossible in the ongoing war with Iran. Since the ceasefire in April 2026, the US has refrained from targeting major cities in Iran or its military and political leadership. This restraint enabled Iran to repair and rebuild its military industries, including those involved in missile and drone production. Moreover, the Iranian regime’s popularity has not been undermined because of the nationalistic forces’ demand for revenge. Even as the rial loses value, inflation rises, and gasoline........

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