Recent Stanley Cup champions have shown how much value an elite third line can provide.

The 2026 Carolina Hurricanes’ cup run was driven in large part by captain Jordan Staal’s exceptional performance on the third line, which earned him the Conn Smythe. The year before, the 2025 Florida Panthers were another remarkably deep team that benefited greatly from Brad Marchand’s presence on their third line, where he recorded 20 points in 23 playoff games en route to Florida’s second consecutive Cup.

For the Edmonton Oilers, they have spent much of the Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl era searching for a reliable third-line centre, and that lack of success is a key reason for the team’s bottom-six struggles, particularly in 2025-26. Without their two superstars on the ice, the Oilers were brutally out-scored 86 to 55 at five-on-five this past season.

But this summer, it seems that the Oilers have finally made a long-term commitment to filling that hole at 3C. After acquiring him at the 2026 Trade Deadline, the Oilers signed centre Jason Dickinson to a five-year contract carrying an average annual value of $4 million on June 21.

It is evident that the Oilers are aiming for a defensive matchup line behind McDavid and Draisaitl. Dickinson’s main calling card is his ability to play extremely tough minutes and put up top-notch defensive results. But what exactly could this look like in practice? Who should be Dickinson’s wingers on the optimal third line, and what sort of impact can the trio make? These are the questions this piece will attempt to answer.

First, we will discuss Dickinson as a player. Take a look at some of his defensive and deployment numbers below. 

What do Jason Dickinson’s defensive metrics look like?

Over the past three seasons, Dickinson has earned a lot of trust from his coaches, playing about 41 per cent of his five-on-five minutes against elite competition. That ranks ninth among all forwards. In 2025-26 alone, that number is at 48.4 per cent, meaning Dickinson spent nearly half of his minutes matched up against the best of the best.

That level of usage isn’t by accident either. Dickinson has rightfully earned it, ranking second among all forwards in suppressing dangerous shots from elite competition (relative to team).

Overall, Evolving-Hockey’s WAR model places his even-strength defensive impact in the 94th percentile among NHL forwards. Those are exceptional results, and it is easy to see why Edmonton’s management values him so highly.

With that in mind, there is one key question that I have about Dickinson: Can he drive a third line to a goal differential over 50 per cent?

For Edmonton, that benchmark has seemed impossible to hit. Only twice have the Oilers’ depth forwards produced a positive goal share over a full season. Meanwhile, every Cup winner in the last decade has enjoyed a net‑positive goal differential without its top two centres on the ice.

Out‑scoring opponents without your best players has become a defining trait of championship teams, which makes Dickinson’s ability to push the needle at 3C a pivotal question.

Let’s use EvolvingHockey’s RAPM model to help answer........

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