Energy Secretary Chris Wright wrongly and notoriously claimed on social media Tuesday that the U.S. Navy had successfully escorted an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz. In an unusual fiasco, his assertion was quickly refuted by the White House and the military. Agency staffers were blamed, but not before the tweet, which lasted online for 15 minutes, scrambled oil prices.

Suspicions of deliberate deception behind Wright's false report are so far unproven. The communications fiasco just happened to follow President Donald Trump's assurance on Monday that the Iran war would end shortly, which he later qualified and walked back.

Statements apparently aimed to calm markets as the Strait of Hormuz is squeezed by Iran were a separate surprise from what developed on online prediction markets, where people bet on government events. On the prediction website Kalshi, some people thought they cleaned up on their bet that Ayatollah Ali........

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