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To save Hollywood, create simple tax credits — and let stars qualify

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The production exodus we’re experiencing from California is not a mystery.

It is a rational, predictable response to a policy environment that has consistently underdelivered.

That’s what I can tell you, as someone who manages studio assets across five countries, operating at the intersection of real estate, production infrastructure and global media markets.

Productions don’t leave California because they want to. They leave because the math tells them to.

Simply put: The economics of content have changed. During the peak of the streaming wars, the major platforms were in a race to generate as much content as possible. Volume was the strategy, while return on investment was almost secondary.

But that era is over. The consolidation of the streaming industry has produced a much more disciplined, ROI-focused approach to content spending. Every dollar of a production budget is now under the microscope in ways it simply wasn’t three or four years ago.

In that environment, tax incentive programs become decisive, not because they’re a nice-to-have, but because on a $50 million television production, only a robust tax credit program can return 30%, 40% or even 50% of qualifying production costs. That changes the math entirely. And when the math changes, productions move.

The UK, Ireland and Canada figured this out years ago. Their tax credit programs are generous, well-structured — and perhaps most importantly in the current climate — stable. They haven’t changed structurally in about five years, and that stability is not........

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