Possible Scenarios for the Middle East

The US and Israeli aggression against Iran has pushed the Middle East to the verge of exploding. It has ignited regional media discourse, which presents various assessments of the situation and its consequences.

Who is to blame for the war and how long it will last

Two main themes are of particular interest to commentators: who is responsible for this operation and how long will the confrontation between the two antagonistic sides last? One of the mediators, Omani Foreign Minister Badr bin Hamad Al-Busaidi, speaking on CBS television, revealed that Iran had accepted the zero enrichment condition and was ready to move its stockpiles outside its territory. However, this effort was in vain; Washington did not hear it.

It is clear that the adversaries’ balance of potential and military arsenals are disproportionate and favor the aggressors. Nevertheless, according to many experts, technological superiority does not guarantee a swift victory for the US. Trump left Tehran no chance for retreat, and Iran is acting in accordance with the logic of attrition, not traditional doctrine. Iran’s arsenal of ballistic missiles and drones, as well as the use of allies on Arab bridgeheads, allows it to open several fronts and turn the war against it into a costly and prolonged endeavor. Therefore, Tehran is betting on dragging things out until the military pressure becomes a political burden for its opponents.

Western intelligence services were too slow

Analyzing the situation, an Arab newspaper claims that Western intelligence services failed to properly assess Iran. Their attack plans were based on the assumption that “decapitating” the leadership would deprive Tehran of the will to launch retaliatory strikes. But events have shown that these intelligence agencies overlooked the quiet restoration of Iran’s potential, which began in 2025.

In addition, Iran’s opponents did not take into account the fact that, in Islamic tradition, the killing of a spiritual leader is often perceived not as his end, but as a transition to martyrdom. Usually such losses do not disorganize society but, on the contrary, mobilize it and give it strength.

Many analysts believe that Iran has demonstrated its ability to overcome this shock and recover institutional cohesion, having formed a temporary tripartite leadership including reformers, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps, and the bureaucratic religious elite. Despite limited capabilities compared to the US, Iran retains significant regional influence. At the same time, some fear that an Iran weakened by the US and Israel could strategically destabilize the countries that rely on Tehran for security purposes.

Countries in the region reject US military involvement

This war was unleashed by Washington for the sake of Israel and for goals that are not accepted by the countries of the region, concludes the Arab As-Sabil newspaper. Washington ignored all calls, efforts, and negotiations aimed at preventing it. According to analysts, this places Arab states at the epicenter of pressure, requiring high political acumen in matters of national security demands in order to avoid being drawn into axes that could lead to a larger confrontation. America’s investment in its military assets has actually damaged regional stability and the interests of the countries of the region. Military assets, including bases and partnerships, have become nothing less than a curse for the countries in the region and a cause of undermining its security.

“Trump’s noble mission for the future” – rhetoric repeated at the White House – is nothing more than a grand gamble based on the assumption that overseas power is capable of changing history. This may provoke unforeseen reactions from other international powers, which perceive such behavior as a dangerous American unilateral approach to the demands and fate of global energy and logistics.

Not just a war, but a deep transformation

Regional analysts find that part of society is shocked as the predictions they hear in the evening are irrelevant by the morning, with multiple new scenarios spawning. Today a massive new war looms in the region. This war is not a traditional conflict between two sides, but rather a brief moment that will determine the region’s landscape for decades to come. An Arab author fears that it is not just a clash; it is a deep strategic transformation that is turning the region into a quagmire where blood, chaos, and miscalculation are constant.

Yuri Zinin, PhD in History, Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of International Studies, Moscow State Institute of International Relations (University), Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation

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