India at a Crossroads: Geopolitical Challenges Amidst the Escalation in the Middle East

The American-Israeli aggression against Iran, set in on 28 February, has posed a serious challenge to the interests of all the regional players. India, in particular, has wound up forced to choose between several foreign policy directions, each equally important for New Delhi, and reconciling them is becoming extremely difficult.

Iran: An Energy Partner and Transit Corridor

Furthermore, Iran offers New Delhi the opportunity to bypass the territories of hostile Pakistan in establishing transport links with Afghanistan, since India’s foreign policy has been prioritising the development of relations with the latter. It refers to the project to modernise the Iranian port of Chabahar, which could become a node of communication with Afghanistan via a railway line currently under construction that goes straight to the Iran-Afghan border. It is significant to mention that the port of Chabahar has remained untouched during the war, which may well indicate a desire of the US and Israel to avoid provoking India, a crucial partner for them.

A New Vector: The Corridor to Europe via the Middle East

Several years ago, another equally significant vector of regional activity manifested itself in India’s foreign policy course — the project for a transport and infrastructure corridor to Europe, with transitional stops in the Gulf states and Israel. At the end of 2021, the formation of another regional ‘Quad’ was announced, which, alongside India and the United States, comprised the United Arab Emirates and Israel. In September 2023, on the sidelines of the G20 summit in New Delhi, the initiative was expanded with Saudi Arabia and several leading European countries having joined it.

Escalation and its Consequences

However, just a month later, the ‘7 October incident’ put paid to all these plans, triggering a process of escalating........

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