China Turns Trump’s Trade War Against Him

Donald Trump tried to use America’s economic weight to force China to bend, only to discover that Beijing has built an economic weapon of its own that Washington cannot tackle.

China Finds America’s Chokepoint

The significance of the Trump-Xi summit in Washington on September 24-25 was therefore not simply the limited trade concessions the two leaders produced. The United States and China agreed on recommendations for more favourable tariff treatment covering US$30 billion of non-sensitive goods in each direction and operationalized bilateral boards dealing with trade and investment. Yet on one of the most strategically important issues dividing the two countries, there was no comparable breakthrough. The White House acknowledged that the two governments “continue to work” on American concerns over shortages of rare earths and other critical minerals, with the aim of restoring shipments to appropriate levels. That carefully worded statement reveals an uncomfortable reality for Washington: China has demonstrated that economic coercion is no longer an American monopoly.

The source of Beijing’s leverage is not simply that China possesses rare-earth deposits. According to the International Energy Agency, China accounted for around 60 percent of global mined production of magnet rare earths in 2024. Far more consequentially, it controlled 91 percent of global refining and 94 percent of sintered permanent-magnet production. That distinction matters. Rare-earth supply chains do not run directly from a mine into a fighter jet, electric vehicle or data centre. Extracted minerals must undergo technically demanding processes of separation, refining, alloying and magnet manufacturing. China dominates precisely these intermediate stages. Finding deposits elsewhere therefore cannot quickly reproduce the industrial ecosystem Beijing has spent........

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