Mar 24, 2026 12:54 pm IST

Opinion | Iran Won't Really Let Trump 'Pause' The War This Easily. Here's How

The escalation matrix has risen rapidly, and Iran may be in no mood to give Trump the early exit he seems to be seeking so desperately now.

Col Rajeev Agarwal (Retd) Col Rajeev Agarwal (Retd)

Col Rajeev Agarwal (Retd)

On March 23, just as the markets were due to open in America and the 48-hour deadline imposed on Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz was about to expire, US President Donald Trump made a surprise announcement. He pushed the 'pause button' on the strikes on Iran's energy and nuclear infrastructure for the next five days. While the markets responded positively to the declaration, Iran did not seem to share Trump's intent, stating that Iran has not been in any direct or indirect talks with the US. Israel, too, refrained from joining Trump in declaring a pause, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stating that Israel will pursue aims that will best secure its own interests. Following the sudden announcement, there is a buzz that there could be a possible off-ramp on the cards. 

Meanwhile, Iran and Israel continued their missile strikes overnight, even as the world waits with cautious optimism on Trump's sudden declaration.

The war in Iran is now in its fourth week, and despite the 'unilateral pause' by the US, there are no signs of an exit or a ceasefire. President Trump has repeatedly boasted of complete achievement of the war objectives, complete destruction of Iran, 100% decimation of Iranian armed forces, and has said that the US is considering 'winding down' its campaign in the region. Yet, the war continues unabated. In fact, with every passing day, the scope of the conflict is enlarging, and the threat that it poses not only to the region but the entire global community is becoming more serious and severe.

What are these new threats? How is the escalation matrix rising rapidly? What are the possibilities towards a negotiated end to this war? Is there a possibility of an off-ramp soon?

The Three Initial Objectives

When the US and Israel launched the pre-emptive strikes into Iran on February 28, there were basically three declared objectives. 

One, heavy punishment on the Iranian leadership, its military, infrastructure and economy, to an extent where Iran will find it very difficult to fight back. As a result, either the regime will........

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