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Terry Glavin: The NATO penny has begun to drop. Trump's on the other side

If a member country were to come under attack, nobody can be certain who the United States would support

As a high-level strategic military paradigm, the NATO high command’s “theory of victory” certainly gives the impression of being a serious bit of warcraft, just by its title. It purports to be a theory that anticipates the measures required to achieve victory in the event of an attack on any of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s 32 member states.

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Adopted last month, an unclassified version of the elaborate war-gaming formulae was outlined on Monday by the Supreme Allied Commander in Europe, Gen. Alexus Grynkewich, at the Warsaw Security Forum. All the generals and the heads of state and defence ministers at the summit would have been well aware that the high command’s “theory of victory” might just as well be understood as a work of speculative fiction.

Terry Glavin: The NATO penny has begun to drop. Trump's on the other side Back to video

For one thing, Russia is not mentioned, although any discussion of the “theory of victory” inevitably turns to Russia and the scenario of an invasion of Poland and the Baltic states via Belarus and the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad. While the Warsaw conference was underway, 20,000 troops were engaged in a 10-day war game simulating a hypothetical invasion of 10,000 troops from the east. For another thing, the “victory” in the master plan envisions that Russian President Vladimir Putin would be left standing and Moscow would remain undisturbed. For even another thing, if a NATO country were to come under attack, nobody can be certain at the moment whose side the United States would be on.

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