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J.D. Tuccille: While Democrats are favoured in the U.S. midterms, uncertainty reigns

Margins are slim, few voters are persuadable and ballots are cast out of revulsion

As I write, Democrats are overwhelmingly favoured to take control of the U.S. House of Representatives and given a slim advantage when it comes to the Senate. That would be in keeping with American political history, with the party that controls the White House usually losing legislative seats. But you may want to hold on to your wagers no matter the odds. The margins are slim, candidates are battling for a thin sliver of persuadable voters, polling has been unreliable for years and, perhaps most importantly, Americans are unhappy with the entire political class.

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Harvard University’s ElectIt currently gives Democrats a 94 per cent chance of taking the House and a 69 per cent chance of a Senate majority. Decision Desk HQ offers a more restrained 79 per cent advantage for Democrats in the House and 56 percent odds for the Senate. Either way, and given the GOP’s hold on the presidency, the omens look good for the donkey party. Its partisans should be feeling pretty comfortable. But they don’t.

J.D. Tuccille: While Democrats are favoured in the U.S. midterms, uncertainty reigns Back to video

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