Despite Iran’s continued restrictions on traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, oil flows through and around the waterway appear to be gradually increasing. This is one of the most important developments in the energy situation since the war began in February.

Before the conflict, around 20 million barrels of crude oil and petroleum products passed through the Strait each day. Kpler data put the February level at roughly 20.6 million barrels per day. After the war began on February 28 and Iran restricted traffic, flows fell sharply. In March, oil movements through the Gulf were reduced to around 6 million barrels per day. Since then, however, the flow has gradually recovered. By September, crude exports from major Middle Eastern producers had risen to more than -1416 million barrels per day, while flows through the Strait itself were also recovering.

This recovery does not mean that the Strait rate has returned to normal which is obviously didn’t. The situation is more complicated. Some oil is now moving through alternative routes, including pipelines, while a growing amount is being transferred between tankers outside the Strait. For Iran, this creates a new strategic challenge. The question is no longer whether Iran can restrict traffic through the Strait. It has already shown that it can. The question now is whether Iran will respond to the rising flow of oil and seek to reduce the volume moving through the Strait once again.

Pipelines Are Changing the Role of Hormuz

One of the main changes has been the greater use of oil pipelines that bypass the Strait.

Saudi Arabia has used its East-West pipeline to move crude toward the Red Sea, while the United Arab Emirates has an export route that allows some oil to reach the Gulf of Oman without passing through Hormuz. These routes cannot replace the Strait completely, but they can reduce the amount of oil that depends on it.

For Iran, this is an important consideration. Restrictions........

© Middle East Monitor