On 26 October, senior officials from three of Washington’s regional security partners flew to Tehran and sat down with its fiercest adversary. Saudi Defence Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman led the delegation, joined by Turkey’s intelligence chief, Ibrahim Kalin, and Pakistan’s army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir. They met Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council. The United States was not in the room.

The visit came amid warnings of renewed American strikes after the US midterm elections on 3 November. President Donald Trump had told supporters that Washington might launch “another little Epic Fury”, a reference to Operation Epic Fury, the US military campaign against Iran launched alongside Israel on 28 February. Subsequent reporting said regional allies had been briefed on possible short, intense attacks and the retaliation they might provoke. No final decision had been announced. For Riyadh, however, the danger was immediate enough to warrant a direct approach to Tehran.

The visitors represented the three signatories of the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement, signed on 7 August. Its text treats an external armed attack on one party as an attack on all, while leaving the nature and extent of assistance to the parties’ assessment. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan says it should not be viewed as “an alliance established against Iran, Israel or any third country”. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has presented a wider regional security framework as a path towards lasting stability. Less than three months after signing the pact, its members were pursuing deterrence and dialogue together.

Riyadh framed the trip as crisis management. Its foreign ministry said the aim was to “de-escalate between the parties to the current crisis”. Rezaei described “a very positive atmosphere” and said the participants agreed that regional countries should provide regional security without outside interference. They would keep talking. The public accounts of the meeting, however,........

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