For more than eight decades, the United States has maintained a formidable military presence across the Arabian Gulf. US bases are dotted across Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Oman. This military presence did not emerge by accident. It was shaped by three enduring strategic goals forged in the aftermath of World War II: the security of Israel, the uninterrupted flow of oil, and the preservation of the conservative Arab states that anchor regional order. These goals have never been formally revised, and despite the seismic geopolitical shifts of the intervening decades, they remain the bedrock of American strategy in the region.

The Carter Doctrine of 1980 crystallized this commitment in unambiguous terms. Triggered by the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and the fear that Moscow might sweep southward toward the Gulf’s oil fields, President Jimmy Carter declared that the United States would defend its interests in the region by any means necessary, including, if required, nuclear force. That doctrine has never been rescinded. It remains the strategic scaffolding upon which four decades of American military stance in the Gulf have been constructed. As President Biden reaffirmed as recently as 2021, “The United States’ commitment to Gulf security is ironclad, and we will not waver in our defense of our partners and our interests.”

The recent conflict with Iran has introduced painful new variables into this long-settled equation. Iranian missile strikes devastated several US forward bases with precision that exposed the limits of American missile-defense systems.

The recent conflict with Iran has introduced painful new variables into this long-settled equation. Iranian missile strikes devastated several US forward bases with precision that exposed the limits of American missile-defense systems.

The psychological........

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