Qatar is buying American liquefied natural gas while spending billions to expand its own export capacity. That apparent contradiction offers a way to understand Doha’s diplomacy during the Persian Gulf crisis. Buying gas abroad gives QatarEnergy something to sell when tankers cannot leave Ras Laffan. It does far less for a customer whose contract specifies a Qatari loading terminal. My article examines what a peace agreement could restore within a week, what will take engineers years to rebuild, and why the decisions that Asian and European buyers make in the meantime could prove more consequential for Qatar than the immediate loss of revenue.

Qatar’s next LNG cargo depends on Hormuz. So does its next expansion.

In October, Qatar’s energy minister, Saad Sherida al-Kaabi, offered two very different answers to the question of how long his country’s gas industry would take to recover. If Washington and Tehran reached a peace agreement and enough tankers were available, QatarEnergy could restart its undamaged liquefied natural gas facilities within a week. Repairing the two production lines struck by Iranian missiles in March would take about three years. For a government trying to limit its losses in the Persian Gulf crisis, those estimates help explain where diplomacy can make an immediate difference and where even a durable settlement would leave difficult work ahead.

For Qatar’s customers, recovery has a more practical meaning. A utility needs to know whether a cargo will arrive in time to meet demand and, if it will not, when to buy a replacement. A government in Doha weighing the cost of another month of conflict has to consider what happens when that same utility negotiates its next supply contract.

The immediate loss is the revenue from a shipment that never leaves port. The longer-term risk is that a customer still willing to buy Qatari gas decides to buy less of it.

The immediate loss is the revenue from a shipment that never leaves port. The longer-term risk is that a customer still willing to buy Qatari gas decides to buy less of it.

What the strikes cost Qatar

Follow a cargo back from the Strait of Hormuz and the geography of Qatar’s vulnerability comes into focus. The gas comes from the North Field, the offshore........

© Middle East Monitor