On 9 March 2026, Bahrain’s Bapco declared force majeure after an attack disrupted operations at its Sitra refinery complex. The incident came amid the US-Israeli war with Iran, as energy infrastructure and shipping routes across the Gulf were drawn directly into the conflict. Reuters reported that Bahrain was among the Gulf producers affected as the war disrupted regional energy flows.

For Bahrain, this was more than a temporary refining disruption. It exposed a deeper reality: energy security cannot be separated from security geography.

Bahrain’s role as host to the US Navy’s Fifth Fleet and its 2020 normalisation with Israel under the Abraham Accords are more than diplomatic facts. They embed the island deeply within the Gulf’s regional security architecture.

The same architecture that provides Manama with external protection and deterrence can also generate geopolitical exposure in a regional war. Sitra demonstrated that, for a small Gulf state, strategic alignment and energy security cannot be treated as separate domains.

The same architecture that provides Manama with external protection and deterrence can also generate geopolitical exposure in a regional war. Sitra demonstrated that, for a small Gulf state, strategic alignment and energy security cannot be treated as separate domains.

Large capacity, concentrated vulnerability

Bapco’s modernisation project raised Sitra’s refining capacity to 405,000 barrels per day, a 42 per cent increase. Yet much of this enlarged refining system relies on the 118-kilometre AB4 pipeline linking Sitra directly to Saudi Aramco’s Abqaiq facilities. The pipeline has a normal operating capacity of around 350,000 barrels per day.

AB4 is therefore more than a pipeline. It is the dominant feedstock artery of Bahrain’s refining system and a critical concentration risk in the kingdom’s energy architecture.

The asymmetry lies in adjustment costs. A........

© Middle East Monitor