The ceasefire in the war between the US and Israel on the one side and Iran on the other, which runs out on Wednesday, looks more fragile by the day. But though the US and Iran cannot agree on concrete steps towards peace, neither do they show much appetite for renewed war.

The US Navy has fired on and seized an Iranian cargo ship while enforcing a blockade on Iran’s Gulf ports – something that Iran has described as an act of piracy. The Iranians say they will retaliate for the US breaching the ceasefire, and trust between the sides is at zero.

But a second phase of the war is unlikely to be any more conclusive than the first. Donald Trump could destroy more of Iran’s infrastructure, much as the US did in Iraq in 1991, which took 20 years to repair. Yet the threat of this is not going to lead to an Iranian capitulation – or even significant concessions on uranium enrichment or Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz. Trump still has overwhelming military........

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