Napoleon famously said: “I would rather have a lucky general than a good general.” He would probably have approved of Andy Burnham as a lucky politician, and time will soon tell if his luck is matched by his political skills.

Most likely Burnham would not be Prime Minister today had he not had a great stroke of luck when Sir Keir Starmer, with typical ineptitude, blocked the mayor of Greater Manchester from standing in the Gorton and Denton by-election on 26 February. Had Starmer allowed him to become an MP and given him a senior Cabinet post, he would have made it very difficult for Burnham to stand immediately for the Labour Party leadership.

In the event, Burnham was able last month to win the election in Makerfield as the implicit anti-Starmer candidate who could trounce Reform UK at the polls, while uniting the progressive end of UK politics. Moreover, he is fortunate in coming to power as the Reform tide recedes, at least for the moment, and the Tory party is resurrecting, splitting the right-wing vote.  

Good politicians make their own luck, which means knowing which way the political winds are blowing and taking advantage of them. By becoming mayor of Greater Manchester in 2017, Burnham showed astuteness because the job is more powerful than it looks: the holder is chosen directly by an electorate of two million, is highly visible and cannot be sacked. Mayors in Manchester and London can provide and publicise practical benefits for their........

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