Donald Trump’s strategic failure in Iran could – accidentally – become his greatest diplomatic success. His attack on Iran revealed the limits of US power and a new source of leverage for Iran in closing the Strait of Hormuz. Ironically, it is precisely this new Iranian power that Trump could use to extricate himself from a strategic mess of his own making.

The US President is in a dilemma. Put aside the bombastic rhetoric, and both sides are stuck. Neither believe they’ve lost; both think they have more to gain. Trump has only two options to break the impasse: Use such overwhelming military power that Iran decides the cost of resistance is too high. Or negotiate – and hope to achieve his aims with the leverage he has.

The clear temptation is to escalate and attempt to break the will of Iran’s leadership. America could continue crippling strikes, or, more strategically, attempt to strangle Iran’s exports through an extended blockade or control of Kharg Island, which handles around 90 per cent of Iran’s oil. The question is not whether Trump can inflict further damage on Iran. He can. It is whether doing it produces the outcome he wants.

To tip the balance of power in his favour – including reopening the strait – may require Trump to absorb a level of pain and risk he has shown unwillingness to tolerate to date, including rising global oil prices and high numbers of US casualties. Military advantage doesn’t necessarily translate into political leverage either. History suggests........

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