The fog of conflict in the Middle East has lifted somewhat, and one can now discern the geoeconomic and geopolitical changes it has wrought. Whether these changes dissolve over time and conditions revert to the status quo ante February 28, the day American bombers took out the leadership of Iran, or calcify into an invariant structural shift remains to be seen. Irrespective, petroleum-import-dependent countries like India should factor these changes into their discussions on energy and national security.

In this article, I identify four such changes.

First, diminishing confidence in America as a guarantor of security. Other than the most hardened MAGA acolyte, everyone agrees that America was worsted by Iran in this conflict. It failed to achieve any of its stated objectives (regime change, elimination/dilution of Iran’s cache of weapons-grade uranium and degradation of Iran as a regional power) despite, according to its Central Command, American bombers flying 10,000 sorties, hitting 1,30,000 targets inside Iran, destroying 85 per cent of Iran’s missile manufacturing capabilities and 70 per cent of its missile launch infrastructure and sinking most of its navy between February 28 and April 8, the date of the first ceasefire.

Moreover, America failed to protect its Gulf allies from Iranian missiles and drones. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait all suffered physical and economic damage during the conflict. These countries had permitted America to establish military bases in their territory in exchange for the assurance of such protection. US........

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