Leading executives at ExxonMobil and Chevron sounded an alarm during a recent Bernstein conference: Global oil inventories are plunging to dangerously low levels, setting the stage for a potential price explosion that could reshape economies and expose the fragility of our energy system.

“We’re approaching unheard of inventory levels. I mean really, really low levels.” Exxon Mobil Senior Vice President Neil Chapman issued told the conference audience, adding that he expects inventories to reach a critical low point in just “two to three weeks. Once you get to that point, then you’ll see price shoot up.” Chapman’s models project Brent crude spiking to $150–$160 per barrel once the operational floor is reached, with demand destruction eventually restoring balance as prices for fuel rise to unaffordable levels for many.

Chevron CEO Mike Wirth echoed this concern at the same conference, noting that the market’s buffers have been steadily eroded. “The buffers and the shock absorbers are being steadily drawn down, and the ability for the market to absorb this imbalance is drastically diminished today versus where we started,” Wirth stated.

The warnings from the two largest U.S. majors highlight a critical disconnect: While paper markets continue to cling to diplomatic optimism, the physical market is running........

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