Refund Chaos Looms After Supreme Court Tariff Ruling. Here’s What Companies Must Do First

Here’s what corporate leaders need to know about the billions of dollars on the line following the Supreme Court’s ruling against President Trump.

BY BRIAN CONTRERAS, STAFF WRITER @_B_CONTRERAS_

Illustration: Inc; Photo: Getty Images

With the Supreme Court having struck down a wide swath of the Trump administration’s tariffs, small business owners are now left to ask the logical follow-up question: “When do we get our money back?”

After all, in the time since the White House first announced their sweeping list of global trade duties—a policy change that happened less than a year ago, though it may feel like much longer for those subject to its whims—American entrepreneurs have scrambled to adapt their supply chains and financial models to the increasingly protectionist market conditions.

Estimates suggest that companies could be owed over $130 billion in refunds—but it’s not yet clear if or how those refunds will play out.

“The path forward for businesses to pursue tariff refunds … doesn’t seem like it will be settled quickly or clearly,” says Kyle Cooper, SVP and GM of checking and payments at the digital banking platform Bluevine. “The question of how those refunds would be administered is also obscure at this point in time—but what we know is that access to capital is on their minds.”

How Canva Became the Power Player in the AI Design Wars

Indeed, a recent survey by the firm found that 63 percent of small business owners hope to access capital this year, marking a two-thirds increase from 2025. Says Cooper: “Any refund that provides capital to them could immediately allow them to explore growth measures again.”

The Supreme Court, for its part, did not say whether refunds will be paid out—let alone lay out the logistics by which many billions in tax dollars would be unwound. The Court of International Trade is instead expected to facilitate any future such process, although the timeline on which that would happen remains uncertain, too.

It’s a logistical nightmare in waiting, which Justice Brett Kavanaugh nodded to in his dissenting opinion.

© Inc.com