The numbers from the NFHS 6 factsheet, recently released by the Government of India, tell a compelling story of progress in Jammu & Kashmir. Child stunting has fallen from 26.9% to 21.4%, wasting from 19.0% to 10.6%, severe wasting from 9.7% to 4.1%, and underweight prevalence from 21.0% to 14.5%. These are not marginal improvements; they represent substantial gains in child survival and nutritional well-being. They suggest that investments in maternal and child health, nutrition programmes, and healthcare access are yielding results. 

Yet focusing solely on these achievements risks missing deeper and more significant indicators. Hidden beneath the encouraging nutrition indicators are a series of demographic and social shifts that deserve equal attention. Fertility has increased, child marriage has risen, educational attainment has slipped, women’s workforce participation has declined, and the use of modern contraception has fallen sharply. Viewed individually, each trend may appear manageable. Viewed together, they raise questions about the sustainability of Jammu & Kashmir’s development trajectory. The most striking finding is the increase in the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) from 1.4 to 1.8. While fertility remains below replacement level, the reversal itself is unusual. Across much of India, fertility has either stabilized or continued its long-term decline. Fertility does not rise without reason. It is shaped by a combination of factors: age at marriage, educational attainment, women’s economic participation, and access to effective contraception. The NFHS-6 findings suggest that several of these underlying drivers may be moving in an unfavourable direction simultaneously. 

Consider the rise in child marriage.........

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