Opinion

Iran war jeopardizes Trump economic boom before key midterm elections

Rising oil costs could knock growth down and hand Congress to Democrats if conflict continues too long

By Peter St. Onge Fox News

Published March 12, 2026 9:00am EDT

Facebook Twitter Threads Flipboard Comments Print Email Add Fox News on Google

close

Video

Trump promises to keep Strait of Hormuz open amid rising oil prices

Interior Secretary Doug Burgum discusses oil prices amid Operation Epic Fury.

NEWYou can now listen to Fox News articles!

Will the Iran war turn President Donald Trump’s 1980s boom into a 1970s stagflation? Only if it drags out, which the president says he plans to avoid. But the enemy gets a vote too, as the saying goes, so what if it’s a long conflict?

As soon as Trump started bombing Iran, markets fell – especially growth stocks like AI. Silver plunged. Bonds fell. Even gold is now down nearly 3%, having replaced its initial war pop with an ominous flight to dollars you see in recessions.

Oil jumped 10% in two days, from $67 to $74 per barrel on the way to $86 as of writing.

Markets always react fast – and they can overreact. The question for the wider economy is how long the war disrupts Middle East oil exports.

SCHUMER ONCE BLOCKED TRUMP'S MOVE TO FILL THE NATION'S OIL RESERVES, NOW HE WANTS THEM OPENED

A thick plume of smoke rises from an oil storage facility hit by a U.S.-Israeli strike late Saturday in Tehran, Iran, March 8, 2026. (Vahid Salemi/AP Photo)

About 20% of global oil exports pass the narrow Strait of Hormuz that is next to Iran. Another 30% are in range of Iranian missiles in........

© Fox News